ΜΙΛΑΣ ΕΛΕΥΘΕΡΑ : Europe Summer Forecast: Extreme Heat to Grip the Balkans but Bypass UK, France

Πέμπτη 7 Μαΐου 2015

Europe Summer Forecast: Extreme Heat to Grip the Balkans but Bypass UK, France

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

May 6, 2015; 7:14 PM ET

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Summer will lack any long-lasting heat waves across northwestern Europe, while parts of southern and eastern Europe will feel the heat.
This heat will also trigger rounds of strong thunderstorms from Poland and Czech Republic into Belarus and Ukraine.
Typical summer heat will be felt from eastern Spain into southern France and Italy, while beneficial rains will bring occasional cooling to western Spain and Portugal.

JUMP TO: Heat Waves Held at Bay From British Isles Into Northwestern Europe| Summer to Turn Hot and Dry From Balkans to Southern Ukraine | Rounds of Storms to Rumble From Berlin to Minsk and Kiev | Summer Warmth From Eastern Spain to Italy; Beneficial Rains Continue in Western Spain and Portugal |
Heat Waves Held at Bay From British Isles Into Northwestern Europe
Following a mild spring, temperatures in the United Kingdom and Ireland will be more seasonable during the summer months of June, July and August.
A trough in the upper levels over the eastern Atlantic combined with cool ocean temperatures will limit extreme temperatures from building over the region from May into early July.
Some glimpses of summer heat will still occur, but extreme heat will be short-lived, limiting the threat of any heat waves. In fact, areas from Ireland into western Scotland are expected to experience below-normal temperatures overall during the summer months.
Farther south, heat will also be kept in check from northern France into Belgium, Netherlands and western Germany. While these areas will not be immune to a few hot summer days, most of the summer will feature days closer to normal.
Normal high temperatures in the middle of summer range from near 21 C (70 F) in London to 24 C (75 F) around Paris and Berlin.
Summer to Turn Hot and Dry From Balkans to Southern Ukraine
Following a very wet winter and spring, change is on the way for the Balkan Peninsula during the summer months. While frequent storm systems will bring continued near- to above-normal rainfall through the month of May, a building ridge of high pressure will develop from late June through August.
This area of high pressure will allow heat to build from the Balkans through the Black Sea region. Along with the heat, storm systems will be blocked from the region, resulting in long stretches of dry weather.
"This summer will be a stark contrast to last year when cool, wet weather prevailed," according to Meteorologist Tyler Roys.
Heat waves will be common from mid-July through August with numerous days of temperatures surpassing 32 C (90F). During the hottest stretches of summer, several days of temperatures over 38 C (100 F) will be possible in cities such as Belgrade and Bucharest.
Wet weather over the past year across much of the Balkans will prevent any widespread drought issues; however, short-term drought will have an impact on agriculture and will lead to lower-than-normal yields.
Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls added, "This heat and dry weather will also impact areas from western Russia into the Caspian Sea region."

(Top Photo/colincarmichael/iStock/Thinkstock)(Bottom Photo/MarieClaudeHH/iStock/Thinkstock)
Rounds of Storms to Rumble from Berlin to Minsk and Kiev
While heat builds up across the Balkans and southern Ukraine, storm systems will track across Scandinavia and northeastern Europe. On the southern edge of these storms, the clash of cool and warm air will result in thunderstorms.
"These thunderstorms will, at times, be strong to severe and will result in the threat of locally damaging winds, hail and even isolated tornadoes," stated Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert. Areas from Berlin to Warsaw and farther east into Belarus and northern Ukraine will be in the threat zone.
While thunderstorms will impact this region from time to time throughout the summer, overall precipitation will be near to below normal due to high pressure centered from southeastern Europe to the Caspian Sea. This will result in stretches of dry weather across north-central and northeastern Europe, which will be interrupted by frontal passages sparking the thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, wet weather will be most constant from Scandinavia into the Baltic states and western Russia, where storm systems will bring rainfall and occasional thunderstorms.
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Summer Warmth From Eastern Spain to Italy; Beneficial Rains Continue in Western Spain and Portugal
While the core of the summer heat will be felt across southeastern Europe, more typical summer warmth will be felt across areas from eastern Spain through southern France and Italy.
Temperatures will be ideal for the vacation hot spots from Barcelona through the French Riviera and Italy.
Any potent storm systems will be steered well to the north and west, limiting most rainfall to isolated daily thunderstorms and also limiting the threat for any severe weather.
Farther west, storm systems over the eastern Atlantic Ocean will bring periods of rain at times to parts of the Iberian Peninsula, especially early in the season.
Reppert commented, "While rainfall totals will not be high in Portugal and western Spain, cooler weather combined with some low clouds and fog will help the drought conditions currently being seen."
Drier weather overall is expected during the second half of the summer, which will also lead to a greater threat for above-normal temperatures during the month of August in Portugal and Spain. While no long-duration heat waves are expected, temperatures may approach 35 C (95 F) on several occasions around Madrid.